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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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