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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.