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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, coming around the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.